Robert Shiller, co-author of the Case-Shiller Index, told Fox Business Network that home prices could fall another 25 percent. Wall Street Pit has the video of Shiller's FOX appearance at this link. An excerpt:
“There are too many negative indicators. I worry that home prices might fall not just a little; 15, 20, even 25% in real terms.”
Feb 23, 2011 8:47 AM
It's one of the top trends for venture investing for 2011, according to Roger Ehrenberg at Wall Street Pit, who sees a continued proliferation of "seed stage Micro VCs" this year:
Without question, there will continue to be opportunities and the seed/Micro VC and growth capital ends of the continuum. Capital will continue to flow into these areas and over the next 12-18 months the transformation from buyers market to sellers market will be complete.In case you've been living in a pit, there's been a focus in Nashville on seed stage investing through Jumpstart Foundry and the work at the Nashville Entrepreneur Center.
Feb 11, 2011 7:34 AM
Total outstanding consumer credit grew to $6.1 billion in December, according to Federal Reserve numbers Monday, more than double the $2.3 billion Wall Street economists had predicted. Today Wall Street Pit has a thoughtful post about whether we should take boosted credit card use — the first expansion in the figure in 28 months — as a positive sign of an increase in consumer confidence, or a negative one that American's have returned to their old bad habits:
The latter would be a concern, specially considering aggregate debt levels in the country have not fallen that much from the peak a few years ago. It could be a host of unemployed turning to their last source of funds as their 99 weeks of unemployment run out. Or, since it happened in December, credit cards could just be a way more people funded their gift shopping. Whatever the case, shorter term it is a boost to an economy that is 70% dependent on consumption – longer term, we’ll have to see a few quarters from now if default rates begin to jump again.
Feb 8, 2011 11:54 AM
Wall Street Pit has a nifty pie chart and discussion that break down where your money goes when you pay the full $600 retail price for the iPhone 4, which was designed in the U.S. but assembled in China. The folks in China get about $6.54 compared to the $360 that goes toward design, engineering, marketing and (of course) profit.
Jul 7, 2010 12:29 PM
Wall Street Pit highlights Fitch data showing the five states with the highest mortgage delinquency rates of prime jumbo loans (those for more than $417,000). Of the states listed, only Virginia strikes me as a bit of a surprise while California accounts for a whopping 44 percent of all delinquent loans' values. In their report, Fitch analysts point out that troubles are now seeping their way into older loans.
[M]ore seasoned pools have experienced significant deterioration over the past year with 60+ days delinquencies increasing from 1.8% to 4.3%. While less than 5% of prime jumbo senior RMBS classes issued prior to 2005 have been downgraded to date, approximately 40% currently have a Negative Rating Outlook as a result of the weakening collateral performance.Speaks to an issue Diana Olick raised recently.
Feb 10, 2010 7:20 AM
Peter Bockvar sums up this morning's negative jobless claims surprise, which pushed the four-week moving average higher for the second straight week. It's not a happy note: "Bottom line, the labor market data in terms of hiring is still very cloudy and the pace of firings has stopped getting better." James Picerno echoes that thought and says the longer-term trend of falling claims is still intact — "gravity still has the upper hand" — but "the hour is late" for a meaningful reversal of the broader jobs picture.
It’s clear that much of the “progress” we’ve seen in the job market so far has been a function of sidestepping economic apocalypse. In other words, the negative momentum of shedding jobs has slowed over the past year, arguably to the point that employment is now simply treading water rather than sinking.
Jan 28, 2010 11:48 AM