Bond traders note that the last seven economic contractions have been preceded by an inverted yield curve, so they're not buying the idea that a downturn is imminent. But if we're not heading into a recession, how much will the economy grow? The Cleveland Fed's projections of the three-month Treasury bill rate to 10-year note yield suggest slow, but positive economic growth -- up 1.14% over the next year.

I'd like to think we can find a different way to get economic growth rising besides letting consumers borrow and spend. Unfortunately, I don't see an obvious way to revive growth here until those consumers get the extra cash they need to buy more.

We need a giant jobs program to hire people and put money in their pockets that they’ll spend and thereby create more jobs. Put ideology aside and recognize this fact. If it makes you more comfortable call it the National Defense Jobs Act. Call it the WPA. Call it Chopped Liver. Whatever, we have to get the great army of the unemployed and underemployed working again.

Operating a business under conditions of excessive uncertainty is like playing a game when you don’t know the rules. Without rules, it is impossible to develop a strategy or playbook. Business leaders are forced to call a time-out: They remove their players from the field and anxiously wait on the sidelines until they have a better idea how to play the game. Too much uncertainty can create economic stasis as more and more decisions get delayed, retarding commitments to expansion of payrolls and capital expenditures and slowing the entire economy.