Peter Cohan says to look at the bond market:
Bond traders note that the last seven economic contractions have been preceded by an inverted yield curve, so they're not buying the idea that a downturn is imminent. But if we're not heading into a recession, how much will the economy grow? The Cleveland Fed's projections of the three-month Treasury bill rate to 10-year note yield suggest slow, but positive economic growth -- up 1.14% over the next year.
Aug 23, 2010 12:03 PM
From David Fitzsimmons via Barry Ritholtz:
Aug 23, 2010 8:12 AM
Friday's very so-so economic data has ratcheted up the intensity of the just-how-bad-will-Q3-GDP-be debate. A few people are still looking for solutions, though. Peter Cohan says it's about pumping credit back into the system...
I'd like to think we can find a different way to get economic growth rising besides letting consumers borrow and spend. Unfortunately, I don't see an obvious way to revive growth here until those consumers get the extra cash they need to buy more....while Robert Reich says there's just one stakeholder that can have the required impact.
We need a giant jobs program to hire people and put money in their pockets that they’ll spend and thereby create more jobs. Put ideology aside and recognize this fact. If it makes you more comfortable call it the National Defense Jobs Act. Call it the WPA. Call it Chopped Liver. Whatever, we have to get the great army of the unemployed and underemployed working again.
Aug 16, 2010 7:32 AM
Zero Hedge passes on a Bloomberg chart that shows the unemployment rates of individual states and the level of job creation. Tennessee hugs the center line, which means job growth is next no nil.
Aug 11, 2010 1:16 PM
Even if you've spent only a sliver of your TV time watching CNBC in the morning, you've seen Art Cashin deliver a nugget or two about the market's psyche. In an interview with King World News, he throws out a bunch of one-liners about government stimulus, consumer demand and other important economic topics. HT: Zero Hedge
Aug 9, 2010 7:50 AM
Small-business owners — "the embodiment of America's entrepreneurial and optimistic spirit" — have little faith in a full-blooded economic recovery. For the first time ever, the Wells Fargo Gallup Small Business Index, which tracks current and future expectations, has turned negative.
Aug 4, 2010 12:08 PM
As John Curran put it very well: "So it was a humdinger, after all." Just not for the reasons we wanted it to be. Friday's GDP report restated the depth of our latest recession, subtracting almost a point of growth since the beginning of 2008. As to how to rev up growth, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher recently told the San Antonio chamber that D.C. needs to step up.
Operating a business under conditions of excessive uncertainty is like playing a game when you don’t know the rules. Without rules, it is impossible to develop a strategy or playbook. Business leaders are forced to call a time-out: They remove their players from the field and anxiously wait on the sidelines until they have a better idea how to play the game. Too much uncertainty can create economic stasis as more and more decisions get delayed, retarding commitments to expansion of payrolls and capital expenditures and slowing the entire economy.
Aug 2, 2010 8:47 AM
Eddy Elfenbein says you need only look at corporate balance sheets — where cash is up 26 percent from a year ago — to get a read on our shaky economic recovery. Jeff Cox at CNBC.com looks into the matter, including the idea that investors want companies to play it safe right now.
Jul 29, 2010 12:28 PM
Interest rates and profits still have to catch up, but the folks at Caterpillar Financial Services are on their way to better days. Second-quarter financing activity jumped by a third to $2.5 billion and past dues fell to their lowest level in a year. SEE ALSO: Strong euro-zone PMI, industrial orders provide surprise
Jul 22, 2010 10:20 AM
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