The third-quarter issue of Tennessee Housing Market breaks down the numbers behind the residential real estate industry's continued slow recovery — except in the apartment sector, where the Volunteer State's growth is outpacing the nation.
Nov 15, 2010 7:29 AM
Mark Zandi has five reasons why investors and consumers should be upbeat about the economy's path in the coming months. Among them: Corporate profits will translate into hiring. Also, the NFIB's confidence index is on the rise — although many small-business owners are still concerned about where new sales will come from.
Nov 10, 2010 9:44 AM
The Commerce Department this morning reported that gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.0 percent during the third quarter. But the key Chicago purchasing managers' index clocked in with a strong October number, with output climbing at its fastest pace in five years. Investors reacted to both numbers with a bit of a yawn; people are still focused on next week's elections and waiting for the Federal Reserve to lay out its plans for further financial quantitative easing.
Oct 29, 2010 12:24 PM
John Augustine, chief investment officer at Fifth Third Private Bank, spoke to a group of his team's clients today about the prospects for the market. His key theme: Things aren't as bad as many people think and the likelihood of a double dip is small. Supporting that thesis, among other things, are the strong rebound in corporate profits and consumer spending as well as the performance of various asset classes since the beginning of the summer. Stocks have led the way, which Augustine said means investors are counting on an upturn in the business cycle. Another positive for the U.S. economy, Augustine said, is the growth in U.S. exports. That has helped companies retain workers and keep factories humming and helped fuel the great global currency devaluation debate. "We're winning the currency war," Augustine said. "We're holding a sale on our exports, but we can only hold a sale for so long."
Oct 27, 2010 2:53 PM
The Tennessee Department of Labor & Workforce Development has updated its job market forecasts through 2018, saying it sees annualized growth of about 0.5 percent. For 2011, though, the number will be next to nil as construction and manufacturing employers continue to cut back and only a few sectors — leisure and the education/health bucket — pick up the slack.
Oct 25, 2010 2:39 PM
Two closely watched economic reports this morning reiterated the U.S. economy leitmotiv of late: Things aren't getting worse, but they're not really getting better, either. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book sad hiring remains nearly nonexistent and the Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose slightly — although its August reading was revised downward.
Oct 21, 2010 11:02 AM
And the U.S. manufacturing sector is shifting down a gear, though not enough to worry most observers.
Today’s report also signaled business investment in new equipment was still growing. Production of technology equipment, including computers and semiconductors, rose 0.3 percent. Reports last week suggested manufacturing will continue to support the recovery and that consumer spending in gaining speed. The New York Fed’s October general economic index rose to the highest level in four months. Retail sales for September beat forecasts, prompting economists at Morgan Stanley in New York to boost their projection for third-quarter consumer spending.
Oct 18, 2010 10:29 AM
Mish passes on the latest data points on consumer discretionary spending from Gallup, which show that our spending on daily stuff is at its lowest since January 2008.
Gallup modeling suggests that lower- and middle-income spending is significantly more sensitive to job market conditions than is upper-income spending. In this regard, the September decline in lower- and middle-income spending may reflect the sharp increase in unemployment over the same period and continued high underemployment levels. Further, the lagged effects of continuing high and increasing unemployment are probably yet to be fully felt.
Oct 15, 2010 10:50 AM
The September version of the Pulse of Commerce Index developed by Ceridian and UCLA researchers makes for dour reading. Its numbers suggest that third-quarter GDP growth will come in between 0.7 percent and 1.7 percent, well below what's needed to really get things moving again.
[O]nce the economy has fallen to the ﬂoor, it has at least to get back to its knees before it can fall again. But it can crawl along on its knees unless it ﬁnds the energy to stand up again. The view of the double-dippers that this an economy totally lacking in positive momentum seems conﬁrmed by the PCI, and unless the economy gains traction soon, a rise in the rate of unemployment is unavoidable, since 1% growth is well below 3% normal growth which is what it takes to have a stable unemployment rate with normal productivity gains.But for the first time since May, the index shows that economic activity in the Tennessee-Kentucky-Alabama-Mississippi region grew nicely last month.
Oct 14, 2010 12:35 PM