The Tennessee Department of Labor & Workforce Development's January county unemployment rates don't make for happy reading. All 13 counties in the broader Nashville metro area saw their numbers rise and only three — Davidson, Williamson and Wilson — still have jobless rates below 10 percent. Funny thing, this recovery.
Mar 12, 2010 7:35 AM
Skeptical as ever, David Rosenberg is by no means convinced Friday's unemployment report is a positive.
All of the gain in the Household Survey was in farm workers and even with that, the broad U6 unemployment rate jumped to 16.8% from 16.5%. If it weren’t for the decline in the labour force participation rate in the past year, the headline unemployment rate would be well above 11% right now. Wage growth is slowing discernibly as seen by the near-stagnation in average hourly earnings. And with jobless claims trending around the 470k mark, how is it possible that employment is really turning the corner?
Mar 8, 2010 11:17 AM
The Curious Capitalist says this morning's February jobs number — the one everyone said to discount because of the effect of the East Coast snow storms — shows the labor market is back on the right track.
So if we had sun instead of snow, February would have been the best jobs month since May 2007, and the second time since the beginning of the recovery that we have had a positive jobs number. And if you believe my argument that snow only delays things, we have a 200,000 jobs head start. That almost guarantees us to have a positive jobs month in March, and our first back-to-back gain in monthly jobs.
Mar 5, 2010 11:50 AM
Yeah, it's going to be tough to live off your shrunken nest egg, but once they think about it, most younger folk will be scared to death about the implications your continued employment will have on the American society and will all but shove you out of the office.
Mar 5, 2010 9:53 AM
The St. Louis Fed has some compelling graphic evidence of how our budding recovery is on track when it comes to industrial production and retail sales — aren't we supposed to be spending less these days? — but on pace to set new lows when it comes to job and income growth.
Mar 4, 2010 9:34 AM
Gubernatorial candidate Bill Haslam says Tennessee's job-creation efforts coming out of this recession should be coordinated on a regional level.
He envisions 10 to 13 regional directors that will be responsible for supporting and coordinating already existing local and regional efforts, aligning resources and developing regionalized short‐term and long‐term plans for economic development. These regional directors would be tasked with giving weekly progress reports directly to the Governor and Commissioner of Economic and Community Development.
Mar 3, 2010 2:04 PM
A National Association of Business Economics survey shows some optimism about companies driving growth in 2010 with consumer spending chipping in a bit more next year. Peter Cohan says the latter assumption is optimistic.
The 2000s featured a well-orchestrated war on workers. Recall that NABE prediction of employment growth that will soon hit 103,000 new jobs a month: Well, it will take an economy producing at least 100,000 jobs a month just to absorb new entrants to the workforce. While it sounds robust, that level of job creation won't even make a dent in the 15 million unemployed.
Feb 23, 2010 8:22 AM
The AP reports how the recent rise in the hiring of temporary workers appears not to be leading to permanent jobs as it did in the past two recessions.
DoubleStar, a human resources firm based in West Chester, Penn., hired two temp workers recently to join its 60-person staff. CEO Harry Griendling says in normal times he would have hired two permanent employees. But Griendling has doubts about the strength of the recovery. He's not ready to absorb the risk and cost of adding permanent workers. "When I look ahead for the next three to four months, all I see is murkiness," Griendling says.
Feb 16, 2010 8:41 AM
Peter Cohan isn't the first to say it, but it bears repeating: Grand job-creation plans based on tax credits won't spur businesses to hire. It will take real innovation — Cohan has his fingers crossed for green tech — and sustainable consumer demand to push unemployment back down.
[I]n the absence of such innovation-led growth, America will be locked into an endless loop of borrowing more money to make up the difference between what American workers want and what their incomes -- or lack thereof -- make it possible for them to buy.
Feb 12, 2010 10:09 AM
David Rosenberg is not impressed with what he calls Washington's focus on short-term solutions.
First, it was a $165 billion of tax rebates in the spring of 2008. What did that accomplish? Not much. Then we had a ballyhooed $862 billion fiscal stimulus plan unveiled a year ago. What do we have to show for it? Just a couple of quarters of positive GDP growth, which again will offer very little in the way of sustainable multiplier impacts. Now we have what can only be described as a tepid reaction to the jobs crisis with an $85 billion bill making its way through Congress with a most distinctly non-creative cornerstone of a $5,000 payroll tax credit that has shades of the Carter-era quick fixes written all over it.
Feb 11, 2010 12:06 PM