The majority of the respondents also say that there is a better chance the economy in 2011 will outperform their forecasts than that it will underperform. Thirty-five economists said the risks to their forecasts are more to the upside; 14 said the risk was to the downside.

This is pretty much the pattern across the whole economy. What is going on here? There are three possibilities: Mismatch, offshoring, and lags. Mismatch says that companies would like to hire, but can’t find the right people. Offshoring says that companies have openings, but they are filling them overseas. Lag would say that companies have openings, but it’s taking them time to pull the trigger, given the overall uncertainty.

But the Bush tax cuts will not do the job alone. Full-fledged flat-tax reform — of the sort embodied in the best of the Bowles-Simpson fiscal recommendations — will be necessary for full-fledged economic recovery. Lowering the top personal and corporate tax rates will increase after-tax returns for work and investment. That’s the kind of strong new incentive that will be necessary to ignite rapid economic growth in the post-meltdown period. Broaden the tax base and lower marginal rates across-the-board.

“Right now, demand for new workers is not at a level that would force companies to bring in talent from outside their region. However, as the local talent pool starts to become depleted as the economy improves, companies will be compelled to cast a wider recruiting net. Unfortunately, the immobility of the workforce may mean that some employers will have to delay expansion plans, thus slowing the recovery,” he said.

The only other time Reis recorded a similar plunge in vacancies was in the third quarter of 2005, when owners converted rentals into condominiums during the housing boom. But renters are still price conscious and shunned higher rents in new buildings. About 90 percent of the newly rented units were in existing buildings, Reis said.

“It’s more evidence of a lousy labor market,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiornini Ramirez Inc. in New York. “Here we are, 18 months into a recovery and we’re not doing much on the job front. Until we digest the excesses built up over decades, you’re not going to see sustained gains in jobs or the overall economy.”