Sometimes you just have to go and get your hands dirty and look at the numbers beneath the number. All of the sales increase in July, and then some, were in “houses not yet started”, which ballooned 33.0% both month-over-month and year-over-year. So, this is spec buying, and guess what? These orders can always be cancelled, by the way. Meanwhile, sales of completed units fell 6.0% sequentially and are down 24.0% from year-ago levels.

Lockhart said these 'structural adjustments' in employment will likely weigh down GDP growth in the medium term. But he added that 'stabilization has taken hold, and the beginning stages of recovery are under way.'

Gross averages never tell the story in a country as large as the U.S. Beneath the expected subpar, U-shaped recovery lies the reality of the American economy: A highly uneven collection of Vs and Ws.

From a month earlier, home prices climbed 1.4 percent in June, the second consecutive gain and the biggest since June 2005, today’s report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over- year changes instead of month to month. “We are seeing some positive signs,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. “There are hints of an upward turn from a bottom.”

"Even as the volume of sales are starting to rise nationally, the median home price continues to fall," said Pete Flint, Trulia co-founder and CEO. "The reality is, today's sellers need to price aggressively to avoid reductions. Consumers are looking for value and when they find a good deal, they are taking advantage of market conditions."

• Don’t make year-to-year comparisons (it is too depressing). • Make comparisons with the previous month or previous quarter. • Forget about ‘recovery’; settle for sustained improvement.

Zillow just reported that 23% of U.S. homeowners are “upside down” on their mortgages (negative net equity), up from 21% in 1Q, and under current home price trends, with all deference to the tentative signs of ‘stabilization’ at the low end, that share will rise to 30% next year. That cannot possibly be good news for the U.S. financials, especially since we know that commercial real estate loan defaults are going to be an even bigger problem for the lending community.

As long as mortgage rates remain low and consumers slowly regain confidence, continued gradual improvement in the housing market can be expected. More robust growth for the housing market depends on sustained job growth, which for the present appears to be in the distant future.