CoreLogic's latest data on mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates show Middle Tennessee consumers and lenders continuing to steadily process the housing bust. The share of loans that are at least 90 days behind (the blue line in the chart below) has come down 45 basis points over the past year while the region's foreclosure rate is at its lowest since July 2010. Both Nashville-area statistics are almost 2 percentage points below the national averages.
Louisiana-Pacific CEO Curt Stevens recently told investors his team is examining plans to boost production capacity to keep up with the rise in home construction. Among the options on the table are the addition of a fourth shift at a plant in British Columbia and the reopening of a large Alabama factory that was idled about four years ago.
The latest building permits statistics digested by the Business and Economic Research Center at Middle Tennessee State University show that the growth in Tennessee building permits is trailing the South's and the nation's by quite a margin — especially with the apartment pipeline growing smaller. You could interpret this statistic in two ways: Either the state's residential builders, still chastened by the recent bust, are being veritable paragons of restraint. Or the shadow inventory of property still held by our banks is large enough to put a damp rag over new construction activity. What say you?
Real estate number crunchers CoreLogic say Middle Tennessee's housing market is gaining strength: Home prices here rose almost 3 percent in September, with distressed sales making little difference. Nationally, year-over-year gains now stand at 5 percent.
Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased by 2.7 percent in September 2012 compared to September 2011 and increased by 2.0 percent* in August 2012 compared to August 2011. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, the CoreLogic HPI indicates home prices decreased by 0.1 percent in September 2012 compared to August 2012.
The place to be in Middle Tennessee construction these days is apartments and hotels; single-family housing builders aren't ramping up in equal force despite very low inventories. The New York Fed this week released some numbers showing one reason why. There are still more than 10,000 properties around the state owned by banks. That's a disproportionately large share of the country's REO stock.
Below are the full stats. To see how they compare to other states', click here.
HT: Calculated Risk
Shares of Louisiana-Pacific are continuing their October surge today, opening up about 4 percent and tacking on more gains in morning trading. The stock (Ticker: LPX), which was the beneficiary of an upgrade Monday, could top $22 based on strong technicals, says one market watcher. At this morning's levels of about $15.50, it is at its highest point since December 2007.
Louisiana-Pacific investors are getting a nice Monday boost from RBC Capital analyst Paul Quinn, who has hiked his rating on shares of the building materials manufacturer to 'outperform' from 'sector perform.' Quinn, whose call is based on both fundamental and valuation factors, also has raised his price target to $16 from $13, putting him at the top of the Street. Even after today's 2 percent boost, that leaves about 11 percent of upside in LP (Ticker: LPX), which has climbed more than 75 percent in 2012.