“The RPI’s solid gain in September was the result of broad-based improvements among both the current situation and forward-looking indicators,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the National Restaurant Association. “Restaurant operators reported positive same-store sales and customer traffic levels for the first time in six months, which propelled the RPI’s Current Situation Index to its highest level in nearly three years.”

Gallup modeling suggests that lower- and middle-income spending is significantly more sensitive to job market conditions than is upper-income spending. In this regard, the September decline in lower- and middle-income spending may reflect the sharp increase in unemployment over the same period and continued high underemployment levels. Further, the lagged effects of continuing high and increasing unemployment are probably yet to be fully felt.

Craig Johnson, president of New Canaan (Conn.)-based consulting firm Customer Growth Partners, predicts that like Wildrick, customers will become hooked once they see dollar stores have evolved. "They've become a new generation of convenience stores, not just a place to buy something on the cheap," he says. Maggie Gilliam, president of New York-based retail consulting firm Gilliam & Co., disagrees. "Most people don't aspire to shop at dollar stores," she says. "As soon as they feel better economically, they'll return to their old stores."