Governor calls for guns-in-parks review

Because the AG said cities can't keep permitted handgun carriers from carrying at ticketed events, the governor is calling for the legislature to review guns in parks.

Aug 4, 2015 10:09 AM

Fox camp now points finger at Freeman, Mitchell

After first blaming either the Barry or Bone campaigns, the David Fox camp now says the bettor's choice is Freeman. As a matter of fact, they say it's "allegedly" Bo Mitchell:

 

The latest accusation, which lacks clear proof of Mitchell's involvement, comes after Turner previously blamed the Megan Barry and Charles Robert Bone campaigns on Friday.

"While ultimately the investigation into this matter will be handled by law enforcement and we don't have any power to indict or question anyone under oath, our preliminary investigation into the matter has focused us like a laser beam on state Rep. Mitchell and the Freeman campaign," Turner said in a prepared statement.

"I want to make clear that everything is 'alleged' until proven in a court of law, but right now if I had to bet on it, that's where I think it came from, and if it did, then there are going to be serious implications."

Both Mitchell and the Freeman campaign, in separate comments to The Tennessean, said they were not responsible for the robocall. Mitchell, who endorsed Freeman's candidacy earlier this year, does not have an official role in Freeman's campaign.

Aug 4, 2015 6:24 AM

CCA spreads the wealth

Nice breakdown at Pith of how CCA execs are donating in the mayor's race. Spoiler: every candidate but Fox got dosh. 

Aug 4, 2015 6:15 AM

Prediction market survey puts Rebrovick high; Freeman and Barry higher

See if you can keep up:

Mayoral candidate Linda Eskind Rebrovick has released results from prediction market research that shows she has a 69 percent chance of being elected mayor. 

Unlike traditional surveys that ask consumers for their personal preferences and intentions – such as “Who do you plan to vote for in the mayoral election?” – prediction markets ask, “Who will be the next mayor?”

“Polls don’t always tell the whole story because the same “weight” is applied to each voter’s answer and they often don’t report undecided voters,” said Brad Marsh, CEO of Consensus Point, the company that conducted the prediction market survey research. “With prediction market research participants can express their confidence in outcomes, and in this market for the mayor’s race, a large segment of undecided voters gave three candidates a strong and nearly equal chance to make the runoff.”

According to the Consensus Point prediction market, which was conducted from July 16 to 23, Bill Freeman has a 76 percent chance of being elected, Megan Barry has a 72 percent chance, and Linda Eskind Rebrovick has a 69 percent chance. These three candidates’ chances of winning are significantly higher than the four other candidates’ odds.

The prediction market research trends and results from three surveys taken throughout the campaign are below.

Who will be next Mayor? (all three markets)

               30-Apr 5-Jun 23-Jul

Rebrovick   64   56   69

Fox   55   53   58

Barry   57   72   72

Kane   45   56   44

Freeman   56   71   76

Gentry   74 75 59

Bone   46   52   48

According to Consensus Point, a score of 75 percent or higher means that an outcome has a very high likelihood of happening. Scores between 60 and 74 percent indicate a directional preference in the likelihood, but not strong enough to further approach certainty. And scores in the 40 to 60 percent range essentially represent an outcome that could be determined by a coin flip.

“Although it’s not an apple-to-apple comparison with traditional polling, prediction markets have historically outperformed traditional polls 75 percent of the time,” said Marsh. “Prediction markets have been used in political races for more than 20 years, so this is a proven approach.”

In 2012, The Tennessean’s prediction market, the Ticker, in partnership with Consensus Point, outperformed Gallup’s poll in accurately predicting the outcome of the Presidential election. On Nov. 5, the Ticker predicted President Obama had a 70 percent chance to win and Romney had a 40 percent chance to win. On the same day, Gallup’s poll had the race at a virtual tie, with Romney slightly ahead.

Rebrovick was the CEO of Consensus Point when it partnered with The Tennessean in 2012, and has seen prediction markets outperform traditional polls on many occasions.

“Prediction markets outperform traditional polls 75 percent of the time, and it’s a different and useful way of assessing potential outcomes,” said Rebrovick. “I’m encouraged that the research shows that I’m gaining significant ground with undecided voters.”

Aug 3, 2015 2:52 PM

Kane's finance chair funds most of PAC payout

The $150,000 payout from American Future Fund PAC Tennessee to Jeremy Kane mostly came from his finance chair David Ingram.

Aug 3, 2015 1:49 PM

Barry endorsed by Barnes

Megan Barry has the endorsement of Bill Barnes of Fund fame:

“We have taken some strong first steps towards housing equality, but we still have a long way to go. Megan Barry will lead the charge on this,” said Barnes. “I firmly believe that Megan’s ethic of inclusivity, progressive values, and deep compassion for others will drive Nashville forward towards justice and peace for all.”

Barnes, a Methodist minister and civil rights activist, has been a life-long advocate for social justice and affordable housing. A graduate of Yale Divinity School, Barnes is the founding pastor of Edgehill United Methodist Church and is still active in the community as a champion of the rights of the poor and the marginalized.

Barnes has also served as the Vice President of the Tennessee Council of Human Relations, Middle Tennessee. In 2007, he published To Love a City, a book that chronicles his ministry in the Edgehill community.  Barnes is also the namesake of the Barnes Fund for Affordable Housing.

“Rev. Barnes has worked tirelessly for years to ensure that Nashville remains affordable for people of all income levels.” Barry said. “I am humbled to have his support and look forward to continuing to fight alongside him for affordable housing for all Nashvillians.”

On the Metro Council, Megan Barry co-sponsored the legislation that created the Barnes Fund for Affordable Housing in order to build more affordable housing units in the Nashville area for working families. Barry has also worked to increase revenue for the funds, helping to create a dedicated revenue stream with taxes collected from short-term rental properties, as well advocating for the Dean administration to set aside revenue from the sale of the old convention center to be used for the fund.

Aug 3, 2015 1:38 PM

TN big part of Cruz's Southern 'firewall'

 

Ted Cruz is making four visits to Tennessee, a move he says is a key part of his Southern firewall.

Aug 3, 2015 10:00 AM

Jeb leads Tennessee fundraising

Jeb Bush is the tops among presidential candidates in fundraising in Tennessee, collecting nearly a third of the $1 million raised here

Aug 3, 2015 8:36 AM

Open Supreme seat sparks speculation

Could the governor appoint old pal and state AG Herbert Slatery to the state Supreme Court? This and more in the AP story.

If Haslam’s previous choices are any guide, the existing appellate bench is a likely source of the next justice. The governor’s two appointments to the Supreme Court so far — Jeff Bivins and Holly Kirby — were chosen from the state Court of Appeals.

Also: SecState says the office is prepared for 2016 retention vote for the as-yet-to-be-named justice.

Aug 3, 2015 7:09 AM