In the race for the 2015 Calder Trophy, Filip Forsberg was the hare.
The Nashville Predators left wing got off to a fast start and – for a time – looked as if he would run away with the award that annually goes to the NHL’s top rookie.
Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau, however, is not quite the tortoise. While it’s entirely possible that he has overtaken Forsberg just before the finish he has not done slow with a slow-and-steady approach. He has finished with a flourish.
Wednesday, the 21-year-old was named the NHL Rookie of the Month for March, the final full month of the regular season. He led all rookies with 16 points (seven goals, nine assists) in 15 games. He started the month with a six-game point streak and along the way had four multi-point performances.
It was his most productive month to date – more than double what Forsberg produced – and gave him a one-point lead in the rookie scoring race. At the start of the month Forsberg was eight points ahead.
Even oddsmakers currently see Gaudreau as a heavy favorite for the award.
A month-by-month statistical comparison between Filip Forsberg and Johnny Gaudreau (goals-assists – points):
Forsberg – 1-7 – 8
Gaudreau – 2-4 – 6
Forsberg-x – 9-6 – 15
Gaudreau – 2-9 – 11
Forsberg – 4-8 – 12
Gaudreau – 8-5 – 13
Forsberg – 3-4 – 7
Gaudreau – 3-4 – 7
Forsberg – 4-6 – 10
Gaudreau – 0-7 – 7
Forsberg – 2-5 – 7
Gaudreau-x – 7-9 – 16
(x-NHL Rookie of the Month)
A month ago, the Nashville Predators were one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup.
With a little more than a week to go in the regular season oddsmakers don’t like their chances nearly as much.
Bovada.lv had Nashville at 14/1 to win it all Wednesday, when it released updated NHL odds. Back on March 3 the Predators were tied with Anaheim for the best odds at 9/1.
3/3/15 Current Odds
New York Rangers 12/1 13/2
Chicago Blackhawks 15/2 7/1
Minnesota Wild 14/1 8/1
Anaheim Ducks 9/1 9/1
Montreal Canadiens 10/1 10/1
St. Louis Blues 10/1 10/1
Tampa Bay Lightning 14/1 10/1
Nashville Predators 9/1 14/1
Pittsburgh Penguins 12/1 14/1
Los Angeles Kings 12/1 16/1
Boston Bruins 14/1 18/1
New York Islanders 12/1 18/1
Detroit Red Wings 14/1 20/1
Vancouver Canucks 25/1 20/1
Washington Capitals 18/1 22/1
Calgary Flames 33/1 33/1
Winnipeg Jets 33/1 40/1
Ottawa Senators 200/1 50/1
Florida Panthers 66/1 300/1
Things are no much better on the individual front.
Pekka Rinne once was considered a leading candidate for the Hart Trophy (league MVP), now he’s not among the top five most likely to win it. And Filip Forsberg has taken a backseat to Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau in the battle for the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year).
Who will win the 2014 Hart Memorial Trophy as the NHL’s Most Valuable Player?
Carey Price (MON) 1/3
Alex Ovechkin (WAS) 7/2
Sidney Crosby (PIT) 7/1
Devan Dubnyk (MIN) 15/1
John Tavares (NYI) 20/1
Who will win the Calder Memorial Trophy as the NHL’s Rookie of the Year?
Johnny Gaudreau (CAL) 4/7
Filip Forsberg (NAS) 7/4
Mike Hoffman (OTT) 6/1
Aaron Ekblad (FLA) 8/1
It’s understandable if Nashville Predators fans and the hockey world in general have come to take Shea Weber for granted.
It’s easy to do. After all, it’s nothing new that the Nashville Predators captain has topped 40 points this season. It’s the sixth straight time in a full schedule (that does not include the 48-game, 2012-13 campaign) that he’s gotten there.
Roman Josi’s emergence as an offensive star and the continued development of youngsters Seth Jones, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm have been much more interesting this season.
Now, though, we all know.
The Predators without Shea Weber are not the same team. Or to put it another way: they’re not as good.
Sometimes you really don’t know what you have until it’s gone. Weber, a three-time Norris Trophy finalist, has been out of the lineup for the last three games and suddenly Nashville can’t protect a lead.
The latest example was Tuesday’s 5-4 shootout loss to Vancouver at Bridgestone Arena.
The Predators led 2-0 after the first period and gave up two goals in the first 6:04 of the second. They led 3-2 after two periods and allowed two more goals in the first 5:48 of the third. The Calgary Flames scored twice in each of the first two periods Tuesday and easily overcame an early one-goal deficit. The Washington Capitals registered a pair of goals in the second period Sunday and cut a three-goal lead down to one.
That’s five times in the nine periods that Weber has been sidelined Nashville has allowed more than one goal in a period. Opponents had multiple goals in five of the last 33 periods before Weber was injured.
The surprise of it all is that the Predators actually won one of those games. They held on at Washington and won 4-3.
“Weber is our leader on defense, and if you lose a guy like him you’re going to feel that,” Josi said. “He’s a great player. We’ve got to find a way to be good without him. The last couple of games we weren’t good enough. We gave up five against Calgary and four (Tuesday) night against Vancouver. We definitely have to find a way to be better.”
One thing that makes voting for the Norris Trophy so difficult is the lack of statistical evidence to quantify a player’s ability and production on defense.
So often the player deemed to be the NHL’s best ‘all-around’ defenseman is one with notable offensive numbers.
Through the first 75 games of this season Weber’s offensive numbers are right where they’ve always been. Although because he’s not among the top 10 in defenseman scoring and he’s not even the highest scoring blue liner on his own team those numbers are not likely to carry as much weight with Norris Trophy voters.
His value on defense, however, never has been more apparent than in the last three contests.
Now more than ever Weber’s all-around excellence has to be recognized – quite possibly with a trophy.
(Photo: Getty Images)
Pekka Rinne knows how to make a comeback.
The latest example is his performance during the current NHL season, which has two weeks remaining. The Nashville Predators goalie is tied for the league lead with 41 wins and ranks among the top five in goals-against average (2.10) and save percentage (.926).
All of that has come after a post-surgical E. coli infection in his hip sidelined him for four months of the 2013-14 season and threatened to end his career altogether. In 2007 he came back from a freak, off-ice shoulder injury sustained during the offseason and was a full-time NHL goalie two years later.
Rinne, therefore, is the Nashville Predators’ 2015 Masterton Trophy nominee, as determined by the local chapter of the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA).
The Masterton Trophy is awarded annually to the player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey. One player from each team is nominated and the winner is determined by a vote of the full PHWA membership.
Steve Sullivan won it in 2009 as a member of the Predators.
Rinne’s ability to persevere is obvious. The fact that he’s even in the NHL is a testament to his willingness to stick with it. He was a little-used backup goalie in Finland when Nashville drafted him in the eighth round in 2004. A year later he came to North America and led the Milwaukee Admirals to the AHL finals.
He is one of the most competitive and hard-working players on the team whose dedication to hockey extends beyond the rink. Last fall, he partnered with defenseman Shea Weber to form the 365 Fund, which funds pediatric cancer research at Monroe Carrell Jr. Children’s Hospital at Vanderbilt. He also works with Best Buddies of Tennessee, which creates friendships for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities.
The 32-year-old is the Predators’ all-time leader in wins (204), shutouts (36) and playoff wins (13).
(Photo: Getty Images)
The Nashville Predators have made it look easy at times this season.
They clinched a playoff berth with two weeks remaining in the regular season when they won 4-3 at Washington on Saturday. They have spent a significant amount of time atop the division, conference and league standings and even after Sunday’s 5-2 loss to Calgary at Bridgestone Arena they still are one of only four NHL teams with at least 100 points.
When it comes to scoring, though, they have done it the hard way.
Roman Josi’s goal at 6:17 of the first period Sunday was the Predators’ 158th 5-on-5 goal of the season, tied for the second highest total in franchise history.
The only time they scored more often with both sides at full strength was 2006-07. However, that was the season they set the franchise record with 266 goals scored but their 173 5-on-5 tallies accounted for just 65 percent of the total.
With five games to go in this season Nashville is on pace for its highest percentage of 5-on-5 goals ever. Nearly three-quarters of all of their scores have happened with the full complement of players on ice.
FAIR AND SQUARE
A look at the Nashville Predators’ highest single-season 5-on-5 goal totals:
173 – 2006-07
158 – 2014-15
158 – 2011-12
154 – 2010-11
152 – 2007-08
151 – 2009-10
THE HARD WAY
A look at the seasons in which the highest percentage of Nashville Predators goals were scored 5-on-5:
73.8 percent – 2014-15 (158 of 214)
72.4 percent – 2013-14 (155 of 214)
72.3 percent – 2010-11 (154 of 213)
71.6 percent – 1998-99 (136 of 190)
70.6 percent – 2012-13 (77 of 109)
69.9 percent – 2009-10 (151 of 217)
Why is this important?
Because referees call far fewer penalties in the postseason than they do in the regular season. So the ability to score at 5-on-5 becomes much more important because more of the game is played that way. On top of that, there is no four-on-four in overtime unless each team has a player in the penalty box. The rules don’t change beyond regulation.
Consider that in 2012, the last time Nashville got to the second round of the NHL playoffs its percentage of 5-on-5 goals in the playoffs was much higher than during the regular season – 77.3 percent (17 of 22), up from 68.1 percent.
The only other time the Predators won a playoff series was 2011. That year they had one of their best 5-on-5 regular season percentages (72.3) and improved upon it slightly in their 12 postseason contests (72.7).
By comparison, the 2006-07 team that was so potent offensively, scored nine of its 14 playoff goals (64.3 percent) with both teams at full strength, a rate almost identical to that regular season – and well below what franchise history suggests is necessary to advance. Not surprisingly, it lost in five games to San Jose in the opening round of the playoffs.
Among the current top eight in the Western Conference standings, Nashville’s percentage of goals scored during 5-on-5 play and the number of 5-on-5 goals are second only to Minnesota.
MAN FOR MAN
A look at the number of 5-on-5 goals and the percentage of total goals scored during 5-on-5 play by the Western Conference’s top eight teams:
161 – Minnesota (215 total goals), 74.9 percent
158 – Nashville (214 total goals), 73.8 percent
150 – St. Louis (219 total goals), 68.5 percent
148 – Anaheim (217 total goals), 68.2 percent
145 – Calgary (220 total goals), 65.9 percent
139 – Vancouver (211 total goals), 65.9 percent
138 – Chicago (200 total goals), 69.0 percent
133 – Winnipeg (205 total goals), 64.9 percent
Lately, it seems like it’s always something with Roman Josi, and Sunday was no exception.
A goal and an assist in a 5-2 loss to the Calgary Flames, each added something to what has become one of the finest offensive seasons ever crafted by a Nashville Predators’ defenseman.
Most notably, Josi became the first Nashville blue liner ever to have at least 15 goals and 40 assists in a season. Until now, Shea Weber’s 33 assists last season were the most by a Predators defenseman who scored 15 goals or more and Kimmo Timonen was the only one with at least 40 assists. He had 42 (with 13 goals) in 2006-07.
Josi has exactly 15 goals and 40 assists with five games remaining, which gives him 55 points for the season, one off the franchise record for defensemen set last season by Shea Weber.
His goal tied him with Ryan Suter for third all-time by a Predators defenseman. Among the top five, he has the fewest games played.
“He’s been one of the top defensemen in the league the entire year,” coach Peter Laviolette said. “He’s able to defend. He’s able to create things offensively. We are one of the top teams in the league and it’s because of his (contributions). It’s hard to pinpoint all he does.”
A look at where Josi currently ranks on some notable single-season and career franchise lists:
Points by a defenseman
56 – Shea Weber, 2013-14 (23 goals, 33 assists)
55 – Roman Josi, 2014-15 (15 goals, 40 assists)
55 – Kimmo Timonen, 2006-07 (13 goals, 42 assists)
53 – Shea Weber, 2008-09 (23 goals, 30 assists)
53 – Marek Zidlicky, 2003-04 (14 goals, 39 assists)
Assists by a defenseman
42 – Kimmo Timonen, 2006-07
40 – Roman Josi, 2014-15
39 – Marek Zidlicky, 2003-04
39 – Kimmo Timonen, 2005-06
39 – Ryan Suter, 2011-12
Goals by a defenseman
146 – Shea Weber (682 games), 2005-present
79 – Kimmo Timonen (573 games), 1998-2007
38 – Roman Josi (249 games), 2011-present
38 – Ryan Suter (542 games), 2005-12
35 – Marek Zidlicky (307 games), 2003-08
(Photo: Getty Images)
For once this season, less was more.
The Nashville Predators managed a season-low 19 shots but scored on the first two and held on for a 3-2 victory at Tampa Bay on Thursday.
“We didn't seem to have our best legs (Thursday) night," Nashville coach Peter Laviolette said, according to The Associated Press. "It's a good road win. It's not easy coming down here and being able to walk away with a win.”
The Predators are on pace to set a franchise record for shots in a season and they are 8-2-1 in games when they have had 40 shots or more.
Things have not gone as well when their shots have been limited.
A look at the games in which the Nashville Predators had the fewest shots on goal this season:
19 – at Tampa Bay (March 26), W 3-2
20 – at Chicago (Oct. 18), L 2-1 (OT)
21 – vs. Winnipeg (March 7), L 3-1
21 – vs. Calgary (Oct. 14), L 3-2 (SO)
22 – at Philadelphia (Feb. 21), L 3-2 (SO)
23 – at Los Angeles (March 14), W 2-1
23 – vs. New York Rangers (Feb. 7), W 3-2
23 – at Colorado (Jan. 30), L 3-0
Against Tampa Bay, which is among the league leaders in fewest shots against, Nashville had four in the first period, nine in the second and six in the third. There were only 17 other attempts. Nine were blocked and eight missed the mark.
By comparison, it had 14 in the first period two nights earlier against Montreal and 17 in the opening 20 minutes Saturday against Buffalo.
“We didn't feel we played great," center Mike Fisher said Tuesday. "Offensively we didn't generate a ton. … We'll take the win.”
Sure they will. The Lightning sure didn’t give them much of anything.
(Photo: Getty Images)
The Nashville Predators will commence with the sale of playoff tickets beginning Friday exclusively at area Kroger outlets, then at the Bridgestone Arena ticket office on Saturday and finally at TicketMaster outlets on Monday, franchise officials announced Thursday.
Tickets will be available at each outlet beginning 10 a.m. on those respective days.
The Predators (45-21-8) have not formally clinched a playoff berth but with eight games remaining in the regular season they are in second place in the Central Division and one point behind St. Louis and Anaheim for the Western Conference’s top spot. That has them in position for home-ice advantage in the first round – and possibly every round – of the postseason.
From the Predators:
For convenience, season-ticket holders who purchase first-round playoff strip-tickets (set encompassing all games in the opening round) will have the tickets loaded directly on to their Smashville Passport (season-ticket holder identification card). Nashville Predators Fan Relations Representatives (615-770-2355) will be available to assist season-ticket holders in forwarding tickets to shareholders.
Individual game tickets for the first round of the playoffs will be directly loaded on to the purchaser’s credit card. Fans will need to utilize the credit card used to purchase the tickets and a photo ID to gain entry into Bridgestone Arena. Any tickets placed at Will Call at the Bridgestone Arena Box Office will be able to be picked up on the day of the game only. All updates to these ticket access guidelines will be reflected in ticket information found at nashvillepredators.com.
Nashville concludes the regular season April 12. The postseason starts the following Wednesday.
The Nashville Predators set out to be better on offense this season.
And they are.
Even so, their first season under coach Peter Laviolette and with skilled forwards James Neal and Filip Forsberg, among others, won’t be their best offensive effort. Through 74 games the Predators have 205 goals, which puts them on pace for 227 – well short of the franchise record 272 set in 2006-07 and not even among the top three all-time.
They certainly gave it a shot, though. Lots of shots to be exact.
Tuesday’s 3-2 overtime victory against the Montreal Canadiens at Bridgestone Arena was simply the latest example of what this team has tried to do all season.
“One of our main goals (Tuesday) night was just shooting pucks,” defenseman Ryan Ellis said. “Whether it was the power play or even strength just get pucks to the net. And you’ll get rewarded more times than not. (Tuesday) night was no exception.”
Ellis, the third-year defenseman, certainly proved that point. His goal at 7:56 of the third period tied the game and eventually forced overtime. It was not a hard shot but it changed directions twice on its way to the net and managed to bounce in just under the crossbar behind Montreal goalie Carey Price, who in recent weeks surpassed Nashville’s Pekka Rinne as the leading candidate for the Vezina Trophy.
Nashville outshot Montreal by just two on Tuesday (31-29). Yet in a back-and-forth contest the featured two of the league’s top teams and was decided by a single goal, that might have made all the difference.
At their current pace, the Predators will finish with 2,619 shots on goal. That would be an improvement of more than 100 over the current franchise record set in 2009-10.
Through Tuesday the total is 2,364, which already is more than the final totals in three of the last 10 seasons. Perhaps more importantly, theyhave outshot the opposition by a whopping 259 (an average of 3.5 per contest), easily the largest margin of the post-lockout era, when rule changes were implemented to open up the game.
FIRE AT WILL
A look at the number of Nashville Predators’ shots on goal for each 82-game season from 2005-06 through present (not included is the 48-game, 2012-13 campaign) with the difference between their total and the opponents’ total in parentheses:
2009-10: 2,508 (plus 112)
2007-08: 2,425 (minus 15)
2013-14: 2,382 (plus 12)
2005-06: 2,380 (plus 118)
2008-09: 2,375 (minus 36)
2014-15: 2,364 (plus 259)
2010-11: 2,362 (minus 148)
2011-12: 2,261 (minus 262)
2006-07: 2,261 (minus 300)
Not every shot goes in. But this season has shown that every shot counts.
The Predators have the league’s best winning percentage when outshooting their opponent (.690) and have had the edge in shots in 42 of their 74 games (56.8 percent).
“There’s been lots of attempts and lots of opportunities through that stretch where we weren’t winning games,” Laviolette said of a recent 2-8-1 run. “We just couldn’t seem to get it to bounce. It’s not like we weren’t generating. We just weren’t getting the puck in the net. So it was nice to get a bounce that went our way [Tuesday].”
They got it because they shot it.
(Photo: Getty Images)
This season is one Jimmy Vesey won’t soon forget.
Even if there comes a time that he does, the Nashville Predators prospect will have his trophy case to remind him.
Vesey was named the 2015 winner of the Walter Brown Award, which recognizes New England’s best American-born Division I college hockey player, on Tuesday. The 2012 third-round draft pick and star forward at Harvard previously was named Ivy League Player of the Year and ECAS Player of the Year.
Currently the nation’s leading goal scorer, with 31, he also is one of 10 finalists for the Hobey Baker Award, college hockey’s version of the Heisman Trophy.
"Jimmy is a great player who has had a tremendous season. He has been incredibly consistent offensively, leading the country in goals scored, and has been relied upon in all key situations," Harvard coach Ted Donato said in a statement. "Jimmy has also established himself as a team leader both on and off the ice. He is very deserving of this prestigious award and we are very proud of him."
Vesey has helped Harvard reach the NCAA Tournament, which opens this week., for the first time since 2006. The Crimson have won seven of their last 10 and earned the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region.
A junior, Vesey has one remaining year of eligibility but the Predators believe he has shown this season that he is ready to turn professional, if he decides that is what he wants.
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