James Janesky at Avondale Partners says investors who cheered Friday's July jobs report shouldn't expect more of the same from August. His team's survey of 28 key indicators "was as weak as we have seen it over the past year," with 18 numbers going backward and only seven improving.
A handful of industries made exaggerated movements in July employment, and we expect these figures will be adjusted out in future reports. The sum of the above outliers nets out to about a 55,000 addition to July private job growth, without which the number would have come in at +115,000 to +120,000. And that modest level is about where we believe the US labor market realistically performed in July.