The September version of the Pulse of Commerce Index developed by Ceridian and UCLA researchers makes for dour reading. Its numbers suggest that third-quarter GDP growth will come in between 0.7 percent and 1.7 percent, well below what's needed to really get things moving again.

[O]nce the economy has fallen to the floor, it has at least to get back to its knees before it can fall again. But it can crawl along on its knees unless it finds the energy to stand up again. The view of the double-dippers that this an economy totally lacking in positive momentum seems confirmed by the PCI, and unless the economy gains traction soon, a rise in the rate of unemployment is unavoidable, since 1% growth is well below 3% normal growth which is what it takes to have a stable unemployment rate with normal productivity gains.

But for the first time since May, the index shows that economic activity in the Tennessee-Kentucky-Alabama-Mississippi region grew nicely last month.